A Theory for Fools
Rubies, Rhaegar and Wine-Sodden Taletellers
Originally posted on r/asoiaf 2021.07.31
In this post we review the symbolism of rubies, Rhaegar, the undead/not-dead, Jon, the Winterfell crypts and the wisdom of fools. Whether or not you are in agreement on any of the points that follow, it is hoped that some of these thoughts shed a different light on some heavily analysed parts of the text.
Rubies
ASOIAF is haunted by the symbolic, by the blue rose, swords of pale fire, faces carved in white trees dripping sap the colour of blood. And rubies. Rubies are everywhere in the text. They “flash like fire”, “pulse with their own radiance” on the necks of shadowbinders and can be cut “in the shape of teardrops” on the queen’s bodice such that she looks like she were “weeping blood”.
That rubies possess a deeply symbolic quality in the text need hardly be argued. What is more difficult is reaching a settled view on what it is they represent. In truth, they have a changing quality, their meaning depending on the context in which they are found. Rubies mean blood, first and foremost but blood comes with its own multiple meanings within the books. They also represent power, wonder and fire. Of course, power, blood and fire can all be used to fulfill magical ends. Rubies appear to be no different in that regard, given that they feature on Melissandre’s neck and Mance’s glamour and can be seen to pulse in moments when the magic is active, for example:
"The glamor, aye." In the black iron fetter about his wrist, the ruby seemed to pulse. He tapped it with the edge of his blade. The steel made a faint click against the stone. "I feel it when I sleep. Warm against my skin, even through the iron. Soft as a woman's kiss. Your kiss. But sometimes in my dreams it starts to burn, and your lips turn into teeth. Every day I think how easy it would be to pry it out, and every day I don't. Must I wear the bloody bones as well?"
ADWD – Melisandre I
The involvement of rubies in Mance’s glamour is of great significance. We know that rubies are connected to lies, to cheating death and to hidden identities. Indeed, Mance makes a joke out of just that when he greets Jon after “dying”:
"Here he comes," he said when he saw Jon, "the brave boy who slew Mance Rayder when he was caged and bound." The big square-cut gem that adorned his iron cuff glimmered redly. "Do you like my ruby, Snow? A token o' love from Lady Red."
ADWD – Jon IV
The same can be said when Maester Cressen attempts to kill Melissandre:
"As you will." Melisandre of Asshai took the cup from his hands and drank long and deep. There was only half a swallow of wine remaining when she offered it back to him. "And now you."
His hands were shaking, but he made himself be strong. A maester of the Citadel must not be afraid. The wine was sour on his tongue. He let the empty cup drop from his fingers to shatter on the floor. "He does have power here, my lord," the woman said. "And fire cleanses." At her throat, the ruby shimmered redly.
Cressen tried to reply, but his words caught in his throat. His cough became a terrible thin whistle as he strained to suck in air. Iron fingers tightened round his neck. As he sank to his knees, still he shook his head, denying her, denying her power, denying her magic, denying her god. And the cowbells peeled in his antlers, singing fool, fool, fool while the red woman looked down on him in pity, the candle flames dancing in her red red eyes.
His hands were shaking, but he made himself be strong. A maester of the Citadel must not be afraid. The wine was sour on his tongue. He let the empty cup drop from his fingers to shatter on the floor. "He does have power here, my lord," the woman said. "And fire cleanses." At her throat, the ruby shimmered redly.
Cressen tried to reply, but his words caught in his throat. His cough became a terrible thin whistle as he strained to suck in air. Iron fingers tightened round his neck. As he sank to his knees, still he shook his head, denying her, denying her power, denying her magic, denying her god. And the cowbells peeled in his antlers, singing fool, fool, fool while the red woman looked down on him in pity, the candle flames dancing in her red red eyes.
ACOK – Prologue
Again, we see a character cheating death, with their ruby right there glimmering. Just as with Mance and Rattleshirt, another character dies in their place. The power of the ruby, of blood and magic, are ever present.
The Ruby Ford
No discussion of rubies would be complete without considering the Ruby Ford and Rhaegar’s death. If you are of the view, as I am, to think that rubies possess a special symbolic weight in the text, then plainly the era-defining moment when Rhaegar is slain in an explosion of rubies must be worth a close look.
Here are a few of the most relevant quotes:
When Ned had finally come on the scene, Rhaegar lay dead in the stream, while men of both armies scrabbled in the swirling waters for rubies knocked free of his armor.
AGOT – Eddard I
"My queen," the big man said slowly, "all you say is true. But Rhaegar lost on the Trident. He lost the battle, he lost the war, he lost the kingdom, and he lost his life. His blood swirled downriver with the rubies from his breastplate, and Robert the Usurper rode over his corpse to steal the Iron Throne. Rhaegar fought valiantly, Rhaegar fought nobly, Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaegar died."
A Storm of Swords - Daenerys II
Rubies flew like drops of blood from the chest of a dying prince, and he sank to his knees in the water and with his last breath murmured a woman's name. . . . mother of dragons, daughter of death . . .
A Clash of Kings - Daenerys IV
Again, rubies are blood. But they are also spectacle. They make for a magnificent image and a fitting tribute to the blood spilled of a renowned and almost legendary prince. Interestingly, the rubies appear for a moment at least to end the fighting between the rival armies, so taken in are the men by the spectacle itself and the need to seek a ruby for themselves. In that sense, the rubies are a spectacular diversion. Rhaegar lies dying in the stream but the attention of most seems to be on the rubies themselves, flowing down river. Famously, the ford at which the battle takes place is renamed the Ruby Ford. In a sense, the spectacle becomes writ on the very landscape and years later Arya hunts for rubies as have many others over the years.
The Quiet Isle
Rhaegar’s rubies do not stay put, it appears that some of them arrive at the Quiet Isle.
“We are blessed here. Where the river meets the bay, the currents and the tides wrestle one against the other, and many strange and wondrous things are pushed toward us, to wash up on our shores. Driftwood is the least of it. We have found silver cups and iron pots, sacks of wool and bolts of silk, rusted helms and shining swords . . . aye, and rubies."
That interested Ser Hyle. "Rhaegar's rubies?"
"It may be. Who can say? The battle was long leagues from here, but the river is tireless and patient. Six have been found. We are all waiting for the seventh."
"Better rubies than bones." Septon Meribald was rubbing his foot, the mud flaking off beneath his finger. "Not all the river's gifts are pleasant. The good brothers collect the dead as well. Drowned cows, drowned deer, dead pigs swollen up to half the size of horses. Aye, and corpses."
That interested Ser Hyle. "Rhaegar's rubies?"
"It may be. Who can say? The battle was long leagues from here, but the river is tireless and patient. Six have been found. We are all waiting for the seventh."
"Better rubies than bones." Septon Meribald was rubbing his foot, the mud flaking off beneath his finger. "Not all the river's gifts are pleasant. The good brothers collect the dead as well. Drowned cows, drowned deer, dead pigs swollen up to half the size of horses. Aye, and corpses."
AFFC – Brienne VI
The Quiet Isle is a religious enclave of sorts, following the faith of the seven. In the wars contemporary to the narrative in ASOIAF they collect the bodies of fallen soldiers and bury them.
Our gravedigger knows no rest. Rivermen, westermen, northmen, all wash up here. Knights and knaves alike. We bury them side by side, Stark and Lannister, Blackwood and Bracken, Frey and Darry. That is the duty the river asks of us in return for all its gifts, and we do it as best we can.
AFFC – Brienne VI
Occasionally, a body washes up that is not dead. It is strongly hinted that the “gravedigger” is Sandor Clegane (this theory has been well developed elsewhere) and that he washed up after battle, taking on a new identity with the help of the septons and leaving behind the wars of the seven kingdoms. The Hound’s “death” is a confused thing. Reports of his whereabouts abound because his helm is worn by others in battle. The Hound suffers two fates. One, in which he “dies” and is reborn into a new identity on the Quiet Isle, and the other in which his terrible aspect lives on through others.
We know that Rhaegar’s body does not wash downstream to the Quiet Isle. His body is burnt by Robert’s army at the Trident. However, his rubies (and in the symbolic and literal sense, his blood) do wash downstream. Six rubies are found washed up on the Quiet Isle and the Septons are “all waiting for the seventh”. Of course they are, they are followers of the faith of the seven.
The seventh god is the Stranger, the god of death. What can it mean that the seventh ruby, the Stranger’s ruby, has not yet arrived on the Quiet Isle? The Quiet Isle specifically is the place where bodies, dead or alive, wash up and are tended to by the septons. On a symbolic level, the washing downstream of Rhaegar’s rubies is incomplete. There is a marked anticipation and a lack of finality to the image.
The suggestion is quite clear. The Stranger cannot be symbolically tied to Rhaegar’s death. His death is anticipated, it is awaited by the Septons but it has not yet come. One can take this a step further. Rhaegar’s dead body has not symbolically washed down river; it has arrived but without the seventh part, death. What do we know happens to living bodies that arrive on the Quiet Isle? They are given a new identity and they depart from the wars of the seven kingdoms. See the gravedigger/the Hound.
Joining the Dots
The “Rhaegar” at the trident died. That much is clear. It is of note that Rhaegar’s armour is very famous and very recognisable.
Yet when the jousting began, the day belonged to Rhaegar Targaryen. The crown prince wore the armor he would die in: gleaming black plate with the three-headed dragon of his House wrought in rubies on the breast. A plume of scarlet silk streamed behind him when he rode, and it seemed no lance could touch him.
AGOT – Eddard XV
His armour is tied inexorably to his death. Just as the Hound lives on through his helm, just as Renly won the battle of the Blackwater, it is Rhaegar’s armour that lives and dies at the Trident and it takes on a magical quality in history and recollection. The answer is there for us in those parallel cases, as well as that of Mance and Rattleshirt. That rubies are tied to secrets, hidden identities, blood and magic is clear and the moment of “Rhaegar’s death” is the pinnacle of this symbolism, hence the sheer quantity of gems that explode when his armour is struck. Rhaegar did not die at the Trident.
But surely, Rhaegar being alive is a foolish suggestion.
The Wisdom of Fools
The wisdom of fools and the foolishness of the wise is a prevalent theme throughout the books, most noticeably in Fire and Blood, but certainly present in the main series from the very start. Many of the most intelligent characters make jokes about the existence of the Others, while the “foolish” wildlings school Jon and maester Luwin about the real goings on in the world. The tension between Old Nan and maester Luwin is a great example, as is the derisory way in which Mushroom’s tales and Septon Barth’s theories are treated in Fire and Blood. Septon Barth’s theories are mostly considered an oddity for being too outlandish, too grounded in magic and mystery to be true, while elsewhere the text hints that it is these characters that are more in touch with the “real” than the realists.
This trope tends to rely on two methods. In the first, there is an unresolved question and a number of answers are presented to the reader. The narrator will often seek to evaluate the quality of the sources for each answer before choosing the answer of the supposedly wise character, while denigrating the others for their foolishness. The joke, generally speaking, is that it is the wise fool who is dismissed but who is closest to the truth. Think Patchface, for example.
Sometimes, all of the theories come from fools and all of them are dismissed equally. See Varys reporting to Cersei on the death of King Renly:
"Have you ever considered that too many answers are the same as no answer at all? My informers are not always as highly placed as we might like. When a king dies, fancies sprout like mushrooms in the dark. A groom says that Renly was slain by a knight of his own Rainbow Guard. A washerwoman claims Stannis stole through the heart of his brother's army with his magic sword. Several men-at-arms believe a woman did the fell deed, but cannot agree on which woman. A maid that Renly had spurned, claims one. A camp follower brought in to serve his pleasure on the eve of battle, says a second. The third ventures that it might have been the Lady Catelyn Stark."
The queen was not pleased. "Must you waste our time with every rumor the fools care to tell?"
"You pay me well for these rumors, my gracious queen."
The queen was not pleased. "Must you waste our time with every rumor the fools care to tell?"
"You pay me well for these rumors, my gracious queen."
ACOK – Tyrion VIII
Of course, it is a combination of the most outlandish of those rumours that is closest to the truth. It is the wildest rumour that gives way to magic, illusion and taps into the symbolism that runs through the books that, casually dismissed, is essentially correct. Stannis did steal through his brother’s camp with a shadow-magic sword and a woman was responsible, Melissandre.
The idea that Rhaegar did not die at the Trident exists as an in-universe theory that the reader is encouraged to dismiss out of hand for the exact same reasons, that it is a joke, that it comes from disreputable sources. It is a theory for fools.
That was the one thing they could agree on, Bran and Rickon and Robb the Lord; they all wished Father was here. But Lord Eddard was a thousand leagues away, a captive in some dungeon, a hunted fugitive running for his life, or even dead. No one seemed to know for certain; every traveler told a different tale, each more terrifying than the last. The heads of Father's guardsmen were rotting on the walls of the Red Keep, impaled on spikes. King Robert was dead at Father's hands. The Baratheons had laid siege to King's Landing. Lord Eddard had fled south with the king's wicked brother Renly. Arya and Sansa had been murdered by the Hound. Mother had killed Tyrion the Imp and hung his body from the walls of Riverrun. Lord Tywin Lannister was marching on the Eyrie, burning and slaughtering as he went. One wine-sodden taleteller even claimed that Rhaegar Targaryen had returned from the dead and was marshaling a vast host of ancient heroes on Dragonstone to reclaim his father's throne.
AGOT – Bran VI
And here, a throwaway joke:
Lord Tywin unrolled the leather, smoothing it flat. "Jaime has left us in a bad way. Roose Bolton and the remnants of his host are north of us. Our enemies hold the Twins and Moat Cailin. Robb Stark sits to the west, so we cannot retreat to Lannisport and the Rock unless we choose to give battle. Jaime is taken, and his army for all purposes has ceased to exist. Thoros of Myr and Beric Dondarrion continue to plague our foraging parties. To our east we have the Arryns, Stannis Baratheon sits on Dragonstone, and in the south Highgarden and Storm's End are calling their banners."
Tyrion smiled crookedly. "Take heart, Father. At least Rhaegar Targaryen is still dead."
Tyrion smiled crookedly. "Take heart, Father. At least Rhaegar Targaryen is still dead."
AGOT – Tyrion
Both of these quotes serve to seed the idea of Rhaegar surviving the Trident. They encourage the reader to dismiss the idea out of hand and not to think of the matter any further. And yet, by making the joke, the idea is there. It exists alongside the more symbolic and magical aspects of Rhaegar’s “death” that are discussed above. It is a foolish suggestion but, as we see elsewhere, the fool often has their own secret truth that the wise cannot see.
"It seems I must be a warrior"
When Rhaegar was a child, he came across a prophecy that changed the entire course of his life:
Rhaegar took no interest in the play of other children. The maesters were awed by his wits, but his father's knights would jest sourly that Baelor the Blessed had been born again. Until one day Prince Rhaegar found something in his scrolls that changed him. No one knows what it might have been, only that the boy suddenly appeared early one morning in the yard as the knights were donning their steel. He walked up to Ser Willem Darry, the master-at-arms, and said, 'I will require sword and armor. It seems I must be a warrior.'"
"And he was!" said Dany, delighted.
"He was indeed." Whitebeard bowed.
"And he was!" said Dany, delighted.
"He was indeed." Whitebeard bowed.
ASOS – Daenerys I
The Rhaegar that we know won a single tourney, albeit a significant one. He commanded a force in the war against Robert and his usurpers, but apparently sat out the early battles possibly spending time during the war at the Tower of Joy. By the time he took command, his only significant battle was his loss and apparent death at the Ruby Ford.
This begs the question, for what did Rhaegar need to be a “warrior”? Winning some jousts does not fit the bill as there is a distinction between “warring” and “jousting”. Sitting out half of a war before losing the decisive battle and ending the reign of the Targaryens also doesn’t seem to fit. He could have done all of that without being a warrior, or indeed without ever joining the war itself in the first place. He had no effect.
The temptation is to simply skip over this life changing prophecy, perhaps to assume that Rhaegar was wrong. He changed the entire course of his life based on a slight misreading of an old tome and ultimately it means nothing. Or perhaps the prophecy simply applied to Jon or another Azor Ahai character rather than Rhaegar himself. There’s no use dismissing these interpretations entirely. Any of them could be correct but it is also true than none seem particularly satisfactory. That Rhaegar, the legendary prince obsessed with prophecy simply made a slight misreading and trained to become a great warrior to ultimately have no impact on any battle ever, falls flat as a narrative. This isn’t prophecy being misread and “biting your prick off”, it’s just dull and uneventful.
There is an alternative explanation however. Rhaegar did need to be a warrior, it was to be a pivotal aspect of his character, it was essential for him to achieve his goals. In that case, if we accept the prophecy (and you don’t have to by any means) then there must be a battle or a war in which Rhaegar has fought or is going to fight that we are yet to hear about. For that to be true, Rhaegar must not have died at the Trident.
Going North
There appears to be a deep and powerful magical force pulling characters north. Bloodraven fuses with an omnipotent hive mind, Jojen and the three eyed crow draw Bran north based on dreams and prophecy, Jon is set to be reborn from the dead and so on. The way in which Stannis is drawn north is particularly interesting:
"I am no lord, sire. You came because we sent for you, I hope. Though I could not say why you took so long about it."
Surprisingly, Stannis smiled at that. "You're bold enough to be a Stark. Yes, I should have come sooner. If not for my Hand, I might not have come at all. Lord Seaworth is a man of humble birth, but he reminded me of my duty, when all I could think of was my rights. I had the cart before the horse, Davos said. I was trying to win the throne to save the kingdom, when I should have been trying to save the kingdom to win the throne." Stannis pointed north. "There is where I'll find the foe that I was born to fight."
"His name may not be spoken," Melisandre added softly. "He is the God of Night and Terror, Jon Snow, and these shapes in the snow are his creatures."
Surprisingly, Stannis smiled at that. "You're bold enough to be a Stark. Yes, I should have come sooner. If not for my Hand, I might not have come at all. Lord Seaworth is a man of humble birth, but he reminded me of my duty, when all I could think of was my rights. I had the cart before the horse, Davos said. I was trying to win the throne to save the kingdom, when I should have been trying to save the kingdom to win the throne." Stannis pointed north. "There is where I'll find the foe that I was born to fight."
"His name may not be spoken," Melisandre added softly. "He is the God of Night and Terror, Jon Snow, and these shapes in the snow are his creatures."
ASOS – Jon XI
Of course, it is Davos that is the instigator for Stannis’ northern campaign but it is clearly something that fits the broad themes of Melissandre’s visions too. There is something in the flames, in prophecy and dreams, that accords with a great, northern, magical battle. Davos did not tell Stannis that he was “born to fight” a great foe north of the wall. That is a vision that Melissandre has passed on to him, something she has seen in her flames. We know from her chapters that she cannot always confidently interpret the symbols she sees. Perhaps when Davos relayed the information in the letter from the Night’s Watch, something clicked in Melissandre’s mind based on what she had already seen in vision. This certainly seems to match Melissandre’s speech to Davos earlier in the book:
"The war?" asked Davos.
"The war," she affirmed. "There are two, Onion Knight. Not seven, not one, not a hundred or a thousand. Two! Do you think I crossed half the world to put yet another vain king on yet another empty throne? The war has been waged since time began, and before it is done, all men must choose where they will stand. On one side is R'hllor, the Lord of Light, the Heart of Fire, the God of Flame and Shadow. Against him stands the Great Other whose name may not be spoken, the Lord of Darkness, the Soul of Ice, the God of Night and Terror. Ours is not a choice between Baratheon and Lannister, between Greyjoy and Stark. It is death we choose, or life. Darkness, or light." She clasped the bars of his cell with her slender white hands. The great ruby at her throat seemed to pulse with its own radiance. "So tell me, Ser Davos Seaworth, and tell me truly—does your heart burn with the shining light of R'hllor? Or is it black and cold and full of worms?"
"The war," she affirmed. "There are two, Onion Knight. Not seven, not one, not a hundred or a thousand. Two! Do you think I crossed half the world to put yet another vain king on yet another empty throne? The war has been waged since time began, and before it is done, all men must choose where they will stand. On one side is R'hllor, the Lord of Light, the Heart of Fire, the God of Flame and Shadow. Against him stands the Great Other whose name may not be spoken, the Lord of Darkness, the Soul of Ice, the God of Night and Terror. Ours is not a choice between Baratheon and Lannister, between Greyjoy and Stark. It is death we choose, or life. Darkness, or light." She clasped the bars of his cell with her slender white hands. The great ruby at her throat seemed to pulse with its own radiance. "So tell me, Ser Davos Seaworth, and tell me truly—does your heart burn with the shining light of R'hllor? Or is it black and cold and full of worms?"
ASOS – Davos III
It seems logical that this battle is to be fought in the North. Certainly, Melissandre knows that there is a great battle to be fought against a cold, dark “great Other”:
"It is the great battle His Grace is speaking of," said a woman's voice, rich with the accents of the east. Melisandre stood at the door in her red silks and shimmering satins, holding a covered silver dish in her hands. "These little wars are no more than a scuffle of children before what is to come. The one whose name may not be spoken is marshaling his power, Davos Seaworth, a power fell and evil and strong beyond measure. Soon comes the cold, and the night that never ends." She placed the silver dish on the Painted Table. "Unless true men find the courage to fight it. Men whose hearts are fire."
Stannis stared at the silver dish. "She has shown it to me, Lord Davos. In the flames."
"You saw it, sire?" It was not like Stannis Baratheon to lie about such a thing. "With mine own eyes. After the battle, when I was lost to despair, the Lady Melisandre bid me gaze into the hearthfire. The chimney was drawing strongly, and bits of ash were rising from the fire. I stared at them, feeling half a fool, but she bid me look deeper, and . . . the ashes were white, rising in the updraft, yet all at once it seemed as if they were falling. Snow, I thought. Then the sparks in the air seemed to circle, to become a ring of torches, and I was looking through the fire down on some high hill in a forest. The cinders had become men in black behind the torches, and there were shapes moving through the snow. For all the heat of the fire, I felt a cold so terrible I shivered, and when I did the sight was gone, the fire but a fire once again. But what I saw was real, I'd stake my kingdom on it."
Stannis stared at the silver dish. "She has shown it to me, Lord Davos. In the flames."
"You saw it, sire?" It was not like Stannis Baratheon to lie about such a thing. "With mine own eyes. After the battle, when I was lost to despair, the Lady Melisandre bid me gaze into the hearthfire. The chimney was drawing strongly, and bits of ash were rising from the fire. I stared at them, feeling half a fool, but she bid me look deeper, and . . . the ashes were white, rising in the updraft, yet all at once it seemed as if they were falling. Snow, I thought. Then the sparks in the air seemed to circle, to become a ring of torches, and I was looking through the fire down on some high hill in a forest. The cinders had become men in black behind the torches, and there were shapes moving through the snow. For all the heat of the fire, I felt a cold so terrible I shivered, and when I did the sight was gone, the fire but a fire once again. But what I saw was real, I'd stake my kingdom on it."
ASOS – Davos IV
Stannis sees ash rising, which becomes snow, just like Patchface (the fool):
"Under the sea, it snows up," said the fool, "and the rain is dry as bone. I know, I know, oh, oh, oh."
ACOK – Prologue
Just as Patchface is described here as “the fool”, Stannis too feels “half a fool” looking into the flames. The cynical king is tapping into the “wisdom of fools”. He sees a vision of Jorah Mormont and the Night’s Watch on the Fist of the First Men, surrounded by wights and Others. Not only that, but he feels the cold through the flames.
A powerful, prophetic, magic force is drawing magical and Azor Ahai adjacent characters to the North for a great battle. It seems clear that being “a warrior” might be a useful skill in the war to come and it is very possible that Rhaegar came across foretellings of the terror in the North during his own research.
In Rhaegar, we have an Azor Ahai type character, obsessed with prophecy, who believes that there is some higher purpose for which he “must be a warrior”. There is a potential parallel here with Stannis and Melissandre. They all perceive that there is a war, greater than that for the iron throne, which is set to take place in the cold/North. So, if we are wondering where Rhaegar might be if he did not die on the Trident, as the symbolism of the rubies and the Quiet Isle seems to suggest, it is to the North we must look. If it is right that Rhaegar went north around the time of the battle at the Ruby Ford, then he and Stannis’ arcs would match quite closely, in that they are both potential kings, adjacent to Azor Ahai, who supposedly lose battles for the throne before u-turning to travel north to fight a war against the Others.
Mance Rayder
The intention of this post is not to amass all the evidence for and against Mance being Rhaegar. That has been done exhaustively elsewhere and people have their views at this point. The point here is to follow the symbolic interpretation through to a logical conclusion.
If Rhaegar believed, as do most of the magical, Azor Ahai adjacent characters, that the battle for the iron throne is empty and that his true purpose is to be involved in a greater, era-defining battle in the North, then realistically we must turn to Mance, who is the Rhaegar of the North.
Mance-Rhaegar achieves the incredible feat of uniting the North, which could only be done by “a warrior”. This achievement would certainly satisfy the prophecy that caused Rhaegar to change the course of his life. It is not mere icing on the cake that Mance plays the harp, is tied to song, to Bael the Bard and wears a magical (Asshai silk) red and black cloak, the colours of the Targaryens. Add to that Mance’s curious interest in chasing the magical Horn of Joramun and his somewhat inexplicable interest in the wars south of the wall and the Winterfell crypts and we certainly have a curious character.
Mance, when glamoured as Rattleshirt, reveals something of his true self to Jon during the fight in the practice yard at Castle Black:
Once clad in mail and plate, the Lord of Bones seemed to stand a little straighter. He seemed taller too, his shoulders thicker and more powerful than Jon would have thought. It's the armor, not the man, he told himself. Even Sam could appear almost formidable, clad head to heel in Donal Noye's steel. The wildling waved away the shield Horse offered him. Instead he asked for a two-handed sword. "There's a sweet sound," he said, slashing at the air. "Flap closer, Snow. I mean to make your feathers fly."
ADWD – Jon VI
Note that Jon thinks “it is the armor, not the man”, just as we suggest that Rhaegar at the Trident was simply the armour, not the man himself.
Jon also notes that Mance “hits harder than I would have thought”, that his “quickness was another unpleasant surprise”, that the wildling wielded his longsword “with blinding speed”, attacked with “relentless speed”, that he dodges Jon’s attacks “deftly”, that he chortles during the fight, that the blows Jon lands have “no effect”, that Mance was “too strong and too quick”. Even when Jon takes Mance unawares and ploughs into him, Mance still comes out comfortably on top.
In this scene, Jon meets his maker. Mance is, by all accounts, an incredible warrior. Not only that, but he is better than he has any right to be. Mance, glamoured as Rattleshirt, defies all expectation. He is unbeatable.
This scene takes on the quality of a character revealing their true self. The question is, whether Rattleshirt’s true self is simply Mance, supposedly trained to fight at the wall, as are the likes of Dolorous Edd, Pyp, Grenn and so on, or if there is more to the scene than is immediately apparent. The trope of a son unknowingly fighting their father in battle is an old one and it may be that GRRM is applying his twist on that old story here. Certainly, it’s an idea he contemplates as the Bael story ends in just such a fashion, with Bael’s Stark son unknowingly fighting (and killing) his father in battle.
R+L=J
The preponderance of the evidence and symbolism of the blue rose etc. appears to point towards R+L=J. The main issue with R+L=J is determining what the narrative significance of it might be. So, Jon is a secret Targaryen bastard rather than a secret Stark bastard. Where does that take his narrative? Many readers seem to intuitively sense this weakness in the theory and it is that anxiety that gives rise to the “Rhaegar and Lyanna secretly married” theories, because at least Jon being legitimate would have a powerful effect on the story.
If Rhaegar is alive, this problem falls away entirely. Mance visited Winterfell to spy on his son. Mance fights his son in a showdown to see what he is made of. Mance travels south to Winterfell ahead of Stannis and Jon to… well there’s a lot of questions about his exact plans in Winterfell that are still unanswered. The point is, Rhaegar being alive and active in the narrative would finally provide some explanation for why GRRM has laced such prominent clues about Jon’s lineage throughout the books.
The Winterfell Crypts
It has long been acknowledged that there is a secret, waiting to be revealed, in the Winterfell crypts. The symbolism of the crypts is that of death, undeath and lineage. The tombs and statues, with their accompanying swords, are said to lock in the spirits of the old kings. The statues are shown to watch the characters as they pass, just as the dragon’s skulls do in King’s Landing. In a fascinating scene, Jon rises from the dead out of one of the tombs:
Robb took them all the way down to the end, past Grandfather and Brandon and Lyanna, to show them their own tombs. Sansa kept looking at the stubby little candle, anxious that it might go out. Old Nan had told her there were spiders down here, and rats as big as dogs. Robb smiled when she said that. "There are worse things than spiders and rats," he whispered. "This is where the dead walk." That was when they heard the sound, low and deep and shivery. Baby Bran had clutched at Arya's hand.
When the spirit stepped out of the open tomb, pale white and moaning for blood, Sansa ran shrieking for the stairs, and Bran wrapped himself around Robb's leg, sobbing. Arya stood her ground and gave the spirit a punch. It was only Jon, covered with flour. "You stupid," she told him, "you scared the baby," but Jon and Robb just laughed and laughed, and pretty soon Bran and Arya were laughing too.
When the spirit stepped out of the open tomb, pale white and moaning for blood, Sansa ran shrieking for the stairs, and Bran wrapped himself around Robb's leg, sobbing. Arya stood her ground and gave the spirit a punch. It was only Jon, covered with flour. "You stupid," she told him, "you scared the baby," but Jon and Robb just laughed and laughed, and pretty soon Bran and Arya were laughing too.
AGOT – Arya IV
The crypts are “where the dead walk”. Not only may this scene be forshadowing for Jon’s death and rebirth, it also provides deep and playful symbolism that underpins the significance of the crypts. Those that are thought dead do not always stay that way. Sometimes the dead walk on.
In a dream, Jon looks for “his father”:
Last night he had dreamt the Winterfell dream again. He was wandering the empty castle, searching for his father, descending into the crypts. Only this time the dream had gone further than before. In the dark he'd heard the scrape of stone on stone. When he turned he saw that the vaults were opening, one after the other. As the dead kings came stumbling from their cold black graves, Jon had woken in pitch-dark, his heart hammering.
AGOT – Jon VII
Again, the symbolism is of the dead rising. Jon searches for his father and finds that those that were thought to be dead are not in fact so. Jon forgets that rising “dead” from a tomb is a trick he has already played on his siblings.
Jon’s narrative arc appears to be pushing him back toward Winterfell. He must surely enter the crypts when he is there and it seems likely that he will find something of significance, perhaps related to his father.
It may be that we have already been told what Jon will find in the crypts, through the story of Bael the Bard:
"North or south, singers always find a ready welcome, so Bael ate at Lord Stark's own table, and played for the lord in his high seat until half the night was gone. The old songs he played, and new ones he'd made himself, and he played and sang so well that when he was done, the lord offered to let him name his own reward. 'All I ask is a flower,' Bael answered, 'the fairest flower that blooms in the gardens o' Winterfell.'"
"Now as it happened the winter roses had only then come into bloom, and no flower is so rare nor precious. So the Stark sent to his glass gardens and commanded that the most beautiful o' the winter roses be plucked for the singer's payment. And so it was done. But when morning come, the singer had vanished . . . and so had Lord Brandon's maiden daughter. Her bed they found empty, but for the pale blue rose that Bael had left on the pillow where her head had lain."
"Now as it happened the winter roses had only then come into bloom, and no flower is so rare nor precious. So the Stark sent to his glass gardens and commanded that the most beautiful o' the winter roses be plucked for the singer's payment. And so it was done. But when morning come, the singer had vanished . . . and so had Lord Brandon's maiden daughter. Her bed they found empty, but for the pale blue rose that Bael had left on the pillow where her head had lain."
ACOK – Jon VI
Bael takes on a false name and sneaks into Winterfell. He ingratiates himself with the Lord and names as his reward a blue winter rose. Famously, the winter rose is the Lord Stark’s daughter. They hide together in the crypts and have a child:
"Lord Brandon had no other children. At his behest, the black crows flew forth from their castles in the hundreds, but nowhere could they find any sign o' Bael or this maid. For most a year they searched, till the lord lost heart and took to his bed, and it seemed as though the line o' Starks was at its end. But one night as he lay waiting to die, Lord Brandon heard a child's cry. He followed the sound and found his daughter back in her bedchamber, asleep with a babe at her breast."
"Bael had brought her back?"
"No. They had been in Winterfell all the time, hiding with the dead beneath the castle. The maid loved Bael so dearly she bore him a son, the song says . . . though if truth be told, all the maids love Bael in them songs he wrote. Be that as it may, what's certain is that Bael left the child in payment for the rose he'd plucked unasked, and that the boy grew to be the next Lord Stark. So there it is—you have Bael's blood in you, same as me."
"It never happened," Jon said.
"Bael had brought her back?"
"No. They had been in Winterfell all the time, hiding with the dead beneath the castle. The maid loved Bael so dearly she bore him a son, the song says . . . though if truth be told, all the maids love Bael in them songs he wrote. Be that as it may, what's certain is that Bael left the child in payment for the rose he'd plucked unasked, and that the boy grew to be the next Lord Stark. So there it is—you have Bael's blood in you, same as me."
"It never happened," Jon said.
ACOK – Jon VI
This story is the confluence of all the themes discussed so far in this post. It is a supposedly preposterous story, told by a fool (wildlings without maester’s to teach them “true” history) that the POV character dismisses out of hand. It touches on the blue rose, the dead (and the not so dead) hiding in the crypts and the secrets of Stark lineage. It even suggests the possibility of a half stark bastard (through the female line) becoming Lord of Winterfell. Ygritte tells Jon, “you have Bael's blood in you”. What she’s saying is that you have a Stark for a mother and a Bael/Mance/Rhaegar for a father.
Mance is Bael, in the contemporary narrative. He hits all the right notes in the story. The bald faced suggestion in Ygritte’s telling, if you take the story in its symbolic sense, is that Jon has Mance’s blood in him.
The Bael the Bard story mirrors the Rhaegar and Lyanna story at the Tower of Joy too, but only so far. The Bael story is about a king beyond the wall, it is about the blue rose and the North. The conventional Rhaegar-Lyanna narrative misses all these points and perhaps most significantly, it does not link back to the Winterfell crypts. There is something missing from the conventionally “wise” telling of the Tower of Joy.
However, if we accept that Rhaegar is Mance and both are Abel/Bael, then it leads us to an interesting conclusion. Jon is set to enter the Winterfell crypts before the story is over. When he is there he will find his true father, risen from the dead (just as all the dreams and images suggest). His father will be there with Lyanna’s statute and he might even be seen to place a blue rose at her feet. In that way, all of the elements of the overlapping narratives, the dreams and the symbolism and of happenstance coincide.